An in-house research system that studies Polymarket's liquidity-rewards programme, which pays market makers for keeping buy and sell quotes close to the market price.
Research · recording public data since 26 Sep 2026 · evaluation window 29 Sep – 12 Oct 2026 · no live orders, no funds · not for sale
Since 26 September 2026 it has recorded public market data only: the rewards offered on Polymarket's markets (every five minutes for the better-rewarded ones, hourly for the full list), the order books of about 5,600 markets every minute, the public trade record, and weather observations and forecasts for Polymarket's weather markets.
Over a 14-day evaluation window, 29 September – 12 October 2026, that data feeds a shadow simulator. The simulator replays the recorded market to estimate the net result a small, rules-based market maker would have had, counting rewards, rebates, and trading gains and losses, under rules and pass/fail criteria fixed in advance, before any result was computed.
The system places no orders, holds no funds and has no trading account connected. Nothing would trade unless every pre-set criterion is met and a separate decision is then taken to run a small, supervised pilot.
An earlier study of a different Polymarket strategy was stopped on 23 September 2026 after a four-day forward paper test came out negative in every configuration. Results of the current study come after its window closes, pass or fail.
Not for sale. Nothing based on this research is offered: no trading, signals, managed accounts or access to the system. Independent research; not affiliated with or endorsed by Polymarket (polymarket.com).